Making predictions for the next year (or assessments of the one past) is a potent draw (think lemmings and salmon) for practically every blogger and pundit on the planet. Why fight it.
Russia will start looking seriously at the Chinese playbook. From economic prosperity to engaging other countries and controlling their own dissident elements (and the attendant world PR), China has done a much better job than the saber rattling from Moscow.
There will be challenges to the Monroe Doctrine and the weak U. S. influence in Africa. There is little U. S. presence in the southern half of our planet – compared to the engagement north of the equator and especially in South and Central America…Africa as well. This may become yet another venue for the Chinese. Africa is especially attractive and China continues to spread their economic largess through the region. A recent comment by a Chinese Admiral about the need for bases to help in the protection of Chinese commerce is a step in that direction. The Chinese will continue to work their plan, slowly but inevitably and we must take notice. Disputes over various island chains may also come into focus as China works to establish a regional bastion.
Venezuela will be back more forcefully on the world stage – Hugo Chavez revels in and often needs the spotlight, currently turned elsewhere. This may also provide an opportunity for Russia to do in South America what China is doing in Africa – if they look seriously at that playbook – the one problem for them – they are Russian.
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