When the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan sank under what are still mysterious circumstances, the immediate suspicion fell on North Korea. There was certainly a very quick effort to spread other possible reasons for the sinking, rocks, and an old mine where offered. A new report indicates that a North Korean sub left and returned to base in a very tight time frame around the sinking of the Cheonan.
Although no one can actually and completely understand the motivations of the North Korean ruler, it is clear that the lack of a pattern is a pattern. To give additional context, there are numerous reports that the dictatorship is suffering some loss of confidence among the abused people of North Korea (shocking) and the government is taking steps, openly (truly shocking) to remedy the problem. Dictators often use conflict to deflect the attention of the populace (Machiavelli included this in his book, “The Prince”) so we must look for that possibility here. The North Korean government would need to have enough suspicion that it was there doing to promote accusations from South Korea, but not enough to clearly point to them. This will enable them to rise in righteous indignation as they so often have done.
It is important, therefore, that South Korea carefully call and carefully raise based on any clear evidence. An emboldened North Korea is not a good thing and they cannot get away with this if there is evidence of their complicity. It must be noted as well that China is the umbrella under which the North operates. Beijing may not always pull the strings, but in the tradition of Cold War proxies, they hold those strings and we only will see one Chinese hand at a time. North Korea is another Chinese weapon.
Speculation on cause of the Explosion
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/03/31/2010033100669.html
North Korean Submarine Movement
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/03/31/2010033101024.html
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