President Roosevelt’s statement to talk softly and carrying a big stick was probably a good piece of advice when the United States emerged as a world power over 100 years ago. It is lousy advice now. More appropriate might be talk softly and let them guess where the stick is today.
The arrival of three of the four OHIO Class SSGNs in three different ports in the Asian-Indian Ocean region is the invention of public relations experts, not military strategists. According to news reports, a number of Asian nations urged the United States to push back against recent Chinese aggressiveness in the region. In response, we do the Teddy Roosevelt thing and surface three large missile-carrying submarines. Brilliant. Far better is the traditional Carrier Strike Group, but that may not be message enough for the PR folks in DC since there is one in Japan.
It is very much akin to Tim Robbins character in Bull Durham, a new pitcher. When questioned by Kevin Costner, in his role as a catcher, about why he continues to throw fastballs against advice Robbins states a need to announce his presence with authority. Costner tells the batter the next pitch will be a fastball, the batter connects, no more authority.
Sending this type of message ignores centuries of Chinese history, character and the current thinking of the Chinese government. If the United States wants to send a message to China, it should be a message to make them nervous. An open show of force only motivates the Chinese military; we are seeing the results of that motivation today because they no longer wish to tolerate a carrier interfering in the region as it did in 1996.
“Some observers believe that China’s naval modernization effort may have been reinforced or accelerated by a 1996 incident in which the United States deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups to waters near Taiwan in response to Chinese missile tests and naval exercises near Taiwan (Congressional Research Service, 2010).”
It is simply breathtaking and mind boggling that the leadership of the United States Navy and the JCS Chairman1 would undertake such an effort and then deny they did it on purpose. Their message lacks long-term strategic value since the Chinese will respond with an equally potent message. This message may not be today or next week, but it will come. We can reassure our allies in the region without this little display. Far better to keep the Chinese guessing, they know our capabilities, we should keep the location to ourselves, make them wary not angry. Confusion to the enemy.
Note 1: Some would say that given the armchair quality of the current JCS and Navy leadership, it is actually not all that mind-boggling.
Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
Story from the Taipei Times
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2010/07/10/2003477581]
Story from the Vancouver Sun
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/deploys+submarines+message+China/3254839/story.html
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